Friday, April 21, 2017

Population growth since the 1960s

As I am almost through processing the annual population numbers based on the registration data - whoever needs the data in a machine-readable format can either look at my XML files or the spreadsheet, I could now extend the graph first created with the 2014 population data to cover almost 30 more years.
The population grew from about 30 million in 1966 to 65 million in 2016, and already visibly in this graph the curve has become less steep recently. Included as red dots are the numbers from the census, which interestingly were lower than the registration numbers till 2000, and only after the registration number drop in 2004 the census numbers have become larger than the registration numbers. Its not surprising that census and registration have different numbers - the reference date is different, yet the largest effect is due to the fact that many Thai don't live where they are registered. Maybe those living abroad were included in the registration data till 2004 to explain the drop by 1.1 million in 2004?

Looking at the annual change of population, the slowdown of the growth is much more visible than  in the first graph.While in the 1960 an annual growth of 4% was normal, it is at about 0.5% since around the year 2000.

While the above analysis is done only using the total population number, the data goes down to the provincial level for 1966 till 1992 and to subdistrict level since then - and the census data I have goes down to district level. The data is available in machine readable form now, so its now easy to do regional population development statistics like the one I did for 2016. I am curious whether someone could use my data collection for any interesting analysis, or even a scientific publication...

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